AI, Market Volatility, and the Value of Patience

It is June 11, 2026, and investors have no shortage of headlines competing for their attention. Geopolitical tension in the Middle East, Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine, volatile oil prices, renewed inflation concerns, the start of the World Cup in North America, and the conclusion of primary elections are all part of the current backdrop.

With so much happening at once, it is fair to ask: what is really driving the major market indexes right now? One of the clearest answers is artificial intelligence. AI is no longer just a futuristic concept or a technology headline. It is influencing how companies invest, how consumers interact with services, how businesses manage costs, and how investors think about future growth.

Clients often ask, “Can you find me the next Amazon?” My answer is usually only partially tongue in cheek: finding a company that will not make investors much money for a long stretch is not the hard part. The harder question is identifying when a company has the right combination of innovation, market demand, execution, and patience from investors to begin a sustained growth cycle.

Amazon is a useful example. The company went public in 1997 as an online bookseller, and for many years investors had to tolerate volatility, skepticism, and long periods when the stock did not feel rewarding to own. Today, after years of reinvention, Amazon is not only a dominant e-commerce company but also a major cloud-computing provider through Amazon Web Services. The long-term result looks obvious in hindsight, but it was anything but obvious along the way.

We may be seeing a similar lesson unfold in parts of the artificial intelligence market. NVIDIA went public in 1999 as a company best known for graphics processors used in personal computers and video games. For years, its stock required patience. The company’s role has since expanded dramatically, and its technology now supports data centers, advanced computing, autonomous systems, and AI infrastructure.

The common thread between Amazon and NVIDIA is not that every innovative company becomes a great investment. Most do not. The lesson is that truly meaningful business changes often take longer than expected, and the market rarely rewards them in a straight line. Companies evolve, industries change, and investor expectations move faster than business fundamentals.

Prior to 2022, NVIDIA was a relatively unknown stock, and most people probably couldn’t have pronounced the name if you asked them. During parts of 2022, the position was uncomfortable to hold as the stock declined sharply. By mid-2024, some of those same investors were considering buying more. That is the nature of long-term investing: confidence is often tested before results are recognized.

None of this is a recommendation to buy or sell Amazon, NVIDIA, or any other individual stock. Every investment decision should be based on each client’s goals, risk tolerance, time horizon, and overall allocation. The broader point is that short-term noise does not always reflect long-term opportunity. Amazon changed how people shop. AI is changing how people search, work, communicate, and solve problems. Those changes may create opportunities, but they will also bring disruption and volatility.

I do not know exactly what the future holds for NVIDIA, AI companies, or the broader technology sector. I do know that there is a reasonable case for owning carefully selected companies that are helping shape the future, provided those investments fit within a disciplined portfolio strategy. When volatility appears in technology stocks, it is worth remembering that time can be an investor’s friend when paired with patience, diversification, and a clear plan.

As always, we are available to discuss your portfolio, your allocation, and how current market themes may or may not fit your long-term financial plan. In the meantime, enjoy a little soccer, baseball, or—much better—the NHL playoffs.

​Thank you for being our client.
 
*Disclosures: Any opinions are those of Sean Budlong and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected, including diversification and asset allocation. Every investor's situation is unique and you should consider your investment goals, risk tolerance and time horizon before making any investment. Prior to making an investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. This information is not intended as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security referred to herein.