Is The Market Going to Crash?

It is June 2, 2025.  Almost halfway through the calendar year.  The optimism that existed among some investors after the election has seemingly disappeared.  The pessimism among some investors after the election has seemingly been proven correct.  In just over 7 months, the questions that our advisor team have been receiving went from “what stock should I buy?” (in December), to “what the heck is happening?” (in April).  And now, we are hearing more “is the market going to crash?” than we have heard since early 2022.
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First, let’s address an issue right up front.  While this whiplash in questions/attitudes seems excessive, it makes perfect sense in a 24-hour a day news cycle.  After the election, people took sides that can often drive everything – purchasing behaviors, worries, and even friendships.  Politics has bled into almost every area of our lives.  So, the questions don’t bother or surprise us at Majestic Financial.

Second, in today’s world most people have gotten used to using their phone/tablet as their main source of information.  Unfortunately, this often means some form of social media.  Heck, I’m writing this as a blog instead of talking individually to clients!  However, not all information is created equal.  Last week, I simply Googled (there’s a new verb for you) “Will the market crash?” and over 5,000 websites were pulled up.  Some of the most interesting were the videos of “financial experts” posting videos on YouTube.

Here is an example of someone who’s posting videos, claiming to know enough to give financial advice, and is saying he believes the sky is falling.

Paul Gabrail has over 2,700 videos and claims more than 265,000 subscribers.  Google him and some of the first videos that come up are on Value investing, what 18 stocks he’s buying, and interesting days in the market.  When you dig into his bio, you will find that while calling himself a “value investor renowned for his value investing strategy,” he made whatever money he has made from buying real estate (specifically apartment buildings).  He doesn’t bother to define value investing or specify why he is qualified to give advice.  Does he make some good points on the market or highlight some good stocks?  Yes, he does.  Does he know what the viewers’ goals, risk tolerance, time horizon, and experience are?  No.  I can only hope our clients don’t view this style of information as quality advice.

I am fairly certain that Mr. Gabrail doesn’t have a direct line to President Trump or any of his economic advisors, and I am also fairly certain that Tim Cook (CEO of Apple) isn’t answering his phone calls.  Full disclosure, I also don’t have President Trump or Cook on speed dial.  I will never claim special knowledge, but I will do the work on research – and trust the quality research of analysts.

Third, everyone has an opinion and most of our opinions are based on our own experience.  So, if you lost 50% of the value of your investments in 2008 and you hadn’t made any changes as the market fell, chances are pretty good you are concerned if the market drops 5% and we don’t make any adjustments.  If you started investing after March 9, 2009, you probably consider yourself a genius.  But what happened in 2008/09, 2011, 2021, etc, doesn’t have anything to do with what is happening in the market or your portfolio on June 2, 2025. 

At Majestic Financial, we are aware of the politics, the geo-political situations, interest rate factors, inflation cycles, and investor worries about all of this.  We are also aware of market opportunities and the fundamentals that can drive an investment up or down.  Our job is to take all the fears and politics out of your portfolio and focus on your goals, risk tolerance, liquidity needs, and time horizon.  I promise you we won’t always be perfect in our timing or investment choices, but if we pay attention to what’s really important and the long-term benefits/risk to our clients, we know we can help clients achieve their goals.
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So, to answer the original question, “is the market going to crash?”  We don’t see it happening based on fundamentals, but we can promise that we are looking at real data to position our clients in the best manner possible each and every day. 
 
Written by Sean Budlong, CFP®, AAMS, Chief Executive Officer, Majestic Financial, Financial Consultant, RJFS, alongside Kendra Omans, Associate Advisor, Majestic Financial, and Max McGuire, Client Service Manager, Majestic Financial
 
*Disclosures: Any opinions are those of Sean Budlong and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected, including diversification and asset allocation. Every investor's situation is unique and you should consider your investment goals, risk tolerance and time horizon before making any investment. Prior to making an investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. This information is not intended as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security referred to herein. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. Past performance is not a guarantee of future result